Russia Ukraine WW3

[Nicepix 5,650]

4 minutes ago, Borr said:

I don't think any of this is relevant to modern China, their money, tech and capabilities have changed , just because Russia was an anti climax don't think China is cut from the same cloth...

 

I do. They come across as aggressive, but when push came to shove on the Indian border they folded.

[Mickey Finn 3,001]

2 minutes ago, Borr said:

I don't think any of this is relevant to modern China, their money, tech and capabilities have changed , just because Russia was an anti climax don't think China is cut from the same cloth...

 

You don't see how a collapsing population is relevant? You said yourself in a previous post. That their median age was 38 or so. In ten years, it's going to be 48 or so. 

I'm not sure what to make of China's financial situation. Except the Government owns 51% of all businesses and both they and the businesses are very deep in dept. With little or no prospect of getting out. 

[Born Hunter 17,751]

Imo China won’t just have a punt at the top dog straight away. They’ve only just really developed the capability of expeditionary warfare. They now have a long road of experience gathering to develop that, so expect them to begin to test their actual capability to be successful at expeditionary with small ops. Amphibious landings on minimally protected islands and interventions to prop up regional governments. Slowly turning the screw on the US and allied hegemony.

If they were to challenge it would be with area denial weapons like hypersonics. 

[Borr 5,769]

2 minutes ago, Mickey Finn said:

You don't see how a collapsing population is relevant? You said yourself in a previous post. That their median age was 38 or so. In ten years, it's going to be 48 or so. 

I'm not sure what to make of China's financial situation. Except the Government owns 51% of all businesses and both they and the businesses are very deep in dept. With little or no prospect of getting out. 

I didn't quote you, but I disagree with both of you. It's of no consequence, I accept I may well be wrong but India is a billion with nukes, China probably trades big with them, Taiwan is a different story as well as all the islands appearing in the China sea etc

[Mickey Finn 3,001]

5 hours ago, Born Hunter said:

Imo China won’t just have a punt at the top dog straight away. They’ve only just really developed the capability of expeditionary warfare. They now have a long road of experience gathering to develop that, so expect them to begin to test their actual capability to be successful at expeditionary with small ops. Amphibious landings on minimally protected islands and interventions to prop up regional governments. Slowly turning the screw on the US and allied hegemony.

If they were to challenge it would be with area denial weapons like hypersonics. 

I don't think they have time to prepare if they are going to try for Taiwan. But suppose they did try and the AUKUS for some reason chose not to step in. What then? They would have a smallish island with a hostile native population. The higher quality chips made in Taiwan are beyond the skill of Chinese workers. Even if they could get the Taiwanese to keep manufacturing them. There wouldn't be a market. They would face sanctions like Russia currently is. If AUKUS did step in, there would be blockades and before too long that would collapse China's economy.  Their coal is all soft and they require imported food stuffs to feed their people. 

Edited July 8, 2022 by Mickey Finn

[Born Hunter 17,751]

27 minutes ago, Mickey Finn said:

I don't think they have time to prepare if they are going to try for Taiwan. But suppose they did try and the AUKUS for some reason chose not to step in. What then? They would have a smallish island with a hostile native population. The higher quality chips made in Taiwan are beyond the skill of Chinses workers. Even if they could get the Taiwanese to keep manufacturing them. There wouldn't be a market. They would face sanctions like Russia currently is. If AUKUS did step in, there would be blockades and before too long that would collapse China's economy.  Their coal is all soft and they require imported food stuffs to feed their people. 

I think the Wests response and Russia's performance with the Ukraine situation has kept China cautious. Had things played out differently I genuinely believe they would be signing off on an invasion plan now. I think they'll be looking to work up to a greater level of military confidence before making a move now. But I do believe they will move eventually. They'd be the first nation to amass such firepower and do f**k all other than internal security with it.

They've just flooded the dry dock of their first native carrier. The first one that is up there in size and spec with your mobs stuff. With consecutive builds set to truly match you, on paper at least.

You make good point regarding their food/energy/supply security, but that only ever makes a country that has a big stick more motivated to use it imo. They can play the soft power angle and start using their military to buddy up with other resource rich trading partners by offering foreign internal security ops, counter piracy and narcotics, disaster relief, air policing etc etc. All the time building up skills and experience, refining operational planning, gauging Western responses.

I agree they have a paper tiger feel about them, so we should not get carried away.

I mentioned hypersonics, and they are the next big thing, but I don't really buy that they are going to be quite as battlespace changing as the hype suggest, having chewed on it a bit. Ballistic missiles with hypersonic effectors exist already, nuclear subs capable of killing carriers exist already, air defence systems capable of intercepting hypersonic have existed for some time already. And of course there is an whole chain of events that need to happen to land that hypersonic on target, so just having them isn't check mate alone. But still, area denial, is a big area of competition and I expect China to use it.

You also make a good point about AUKUS.

Edited July 8, 2022 by Born Hunter

[JDHUNTING 1,817]

1 hour ago, Mickey Finn said:

If you look at the age bars. There is a significant decline in population just after the 30yo mark. Their population is about to collapse, and they know it. Just as Russia, and most industrialized European countries know it.

The UK's is not completely hopeless though. 

Allah akbar

[MH1 1,866]

2 hours ago, Francie said:

On chinas border with India there agreed to have no guns,so they battle it out with fists an sticks apparently

Lol have you seen the gear they used?

Nail-studded clubs 'used by Chinese forces' in deadly clash with India

METRO.CO.UK

---

Tensions are growing between the two countries.

 

[Mickey Finn 3,001]

5 hours ago, Born Hunter said:

They've just flooded the dry dock of their first native carrier. The first one that is up there in size and spec with your mobs stuff. With consecutive builds set to truly match you, on paper at least.

They should be building nursing homes instead of aircraft carriers. 

[Mickey Finn 3,001]

5 hours ago, Born Hunter said:

I think the Wests response and Russia's performance with the Ukraine situation has kept China cautious. Had things played out differently I genuinely believe they would be signing off on an invasion plan now. I think they'll be looking to work up to a greater level of military confidence before making a move now. But I do believe they will move eventually. They'd be the first nation to amass such firepower and do f**k all other than internal security with it.

I think so as well. All of the sanctions are one thing. But to have huge corporations simply pack up and leave? Must have really upset their understanding of the west. lol

 

5 hours ago, Born Hunter said:

I mentioned hypersonics, and they are the next big thing, but I don't really buy that they are going to be quite as battlespace changing as the hype suggest, having chewed on it a bit. Ballistic missiles with hypersonic effectors exist already, nuclear subs capable of killing carriers exist already, air defence systems capable of intercepting hypersonic have existed for some time already. And of course there is an whole chain of events that need to happen to land that hypersonic on target, so just having them isn't check mate alone. But still, area denial, is a big area of competition and I expect China to use it.

 

5 hours ago, Born Hunter said:

You also make a good point about AUKUS.

If we get out of World War III, then we can congratulate ourselves.

[Mickey Finn 3,001]

Did I kill the discussion? 

A recent report stated Ukraine was using 3000 artillery rounds a day. Any former artillery guys, could you imagine?

[Lenmcharristar 9,721]

3 hours ago, Mickey Finn said:

Did I kill the discussion? 

A recent report stated Ukraine was using 3000 artillery rounds a day. Any former artillery guys, could you imagine?

I just dont believe putin is at fault here, i still think its the bidens and the demorats poking at russia non stop

[Mickey Finn 3,001]

13 hours ago, Lenmcharristar said:

I just dont believe putin is at fault here, i still think its the bidens and the demorats poking at russia non stop

Interesting. It's true the global system was designed to block the then Soviet Union from the markets. An appreciation of irony requires I point out that the Communists who over through an empire. Created one of their own. But they have been selling oil and grain to the world for years now, haven't they? 

Sanctions which we all agree are better than WWIII. Are the tool of choice for ensuring appropriate behavior from nations. You can argue how effective they are all day if you care to. They do seem to be failing this time. I think this is why: Russia's land lacks defendable borders to the west. That and their shrinking population have most likely pushed them to this point. Basically, it was now or never. They should have chosen never but they didn't.

Knowing Russian history in the 20th century. You can hardly blame neighboring countries from Joining NATO. But you blame the USA? 

[WILF 46,572]

3 minutes ago, Mickey Finn said:

Interesting. It's true the global system was designed to block the then Soviet Union from the markets. An appreciation of irony requires I point out that the Communists who over through an empire. Created one of their own. But they have been selling oil and grain to the world for years now, haven't they? 

Sanctions which we all agree are better than WWIII. Are the tool of choice for ensuring appropriate behavior from nations. You can argue how effective they are all day if you care to. They do seem to be failing this time. I think this is why: Russia's land lacks defendable borders to the west. That and their shrinking population have most likely pushed them to this point. Basically, it was now or never. They should have chosen never but they didn't.

Knowing Russian history in the 20th century. You can hardly blame neighboring countries from Joining NATO. But you blame the USA? 

I admit I don’t have the first clue about the truth of what’s what……but knowing the few things I do know and given past and present form it seems the only people suffering from these so called sanctions are ordinary people.

The treasuries of these various countries ain’t suffering, they are raking in trillions

The various corporations ain’t suffering, they are more than making up for the last few years

The people at the top and their money market pals ain’t suffering…..they are having it right off 

It’s all just a bit too convenient, if it quacks like a duck and walks like a duck….it’s a duck.

Something is massively “off” and I think more people are starting to feel that.

jmho 

[Mickey Finn 3,001]

3 minutes ago, WILF said:

I admit I don’t have the first clue about the truth of what’s what……but knowing the few things I do know and given past and present form it seems the only people suffering from these so called sanctions are ordinary people.

The treasuries of these various countries ain’t suffering, they are raking in trillions

The various corporations ain’t suffering, they are more than making up for the last few years

The people at the top and their money market pals ain’t suffering…..they are having it right off 

It’s all just a bit too convenient, if it quacks like a duck and walks like a duck….it’s a duck.

Something is massively “off” and I think more people are starting to feel that.

jmho 

Well, who suffers most in a shooting war?