Covid 19: What’s the lesson ?

[NEWKID 27,189]

18 hours ago, Blackmag said:

Just got back from a fishing social max lad in next swim a nurse at rph .I got talking about corvid amongst other things here is what  roughly he said and it's someone on the front line he  said it is still uncertain if it is going to increase in strength but from the beginning it did take the above you mentioned but also still infected and hospitalised a lot of younger  folk  nurses doctors ect and now we're seeing a lot more younger stronger people than elderly on venterlaters the damage to the lungs after being on one is something still being tested so they don't know what lasting damaged it as /will cause  but some still have to be helped because there chorking whilst on them seeing it first hand plus talking to colleagues who have had it he can say it is serious but in his opinion has been mismanaged and anyone who thinks it's not as serious or as deadly as its being made out it's a shame they can't see for themselves on a corvid ward how bad it really is his words max not mine 

Said during the first wave my best mates wife is nurse and on the Covid ward, he said then that she was upset by it all and it was bad if you ended up in hospital with it.

So I was round theres looking at a job for him, owe him a favour, got yapping to his mrs...she told me that during that first wave they struggled with how to deal with the covid patients, they just couldn't get enough oxygen into them, organ failure and lots of these people are still struggling in many ways, some are dead.

Her words were it was horrific and it is starting again.. 

Now we never had the numbers die, or in hospitals that were expected, but that's a good thing, was that because of the lockdown? Or pure coincidence?

We sold my wifes business at the end of lockdown, I've known the people a long time, he is ex military and worked setting up the excess morgue for Devon, the prediction was an additional 40k deaths in the region with no way of coping with this through our morgue and funeral parlours, it became a military operation with him overseeing it for the council....they had zero bodies to deal with...

The prediction was wrong, or the lockdown worked?

Finally my brothers father in law has the same condition as my wife, is on immuno suppresant drugs and got Covid in May...he was in a shit state, raging temperature they couldn't get down, and couldn't breathe...he had told me since he was sure he was dying...the HIV drug was used on him in hospital for 2 or 3 weeks, and finally he got a bit better, he is still not 100%, short of breath and tired...who knows what happens long term?

So in the limited first hand info I have, I make the assumption that....

It is easily passed around and is luck of the draw who badly it affects you, it was not just old or infirm who were in a shit state according to my friends wife.

I do not want to catch it or pass to any of my family, it anit with the risk.

I cant see us economically surving another full lockdown, it will destroy many businesses of all sizes and in most industries. I certainly dont want a full lockdown as I am one of these businesses that would be hurt.

The government are all over the shop, but so would any other be, this is not a time for political point scoring in my opinion, but the huge divides from brexit, BLM and the ever increasing left / right divide prevents any sensible debates, instead it just a slagging match...

 

And...as far as sheep or being blind etc, I ask what are those making all this noise doing that is so extremely different to anyone else? A mate of mine and his wife went to a anti mask wearing protest on Saturday, why?? Just dont wear one if you are that angered by it....off shouting about all sorts of shit in big groups is the fashion now I reckon...but most of us, will quietly crack on, try and avoid getting the virus if poss and protect our own....like normal.

[NEWKID 27,189]

Went out for my nieces 18th last thursday, 2 tables of 6, had a meal, then came out to witness the students being kicked out of the club next door....both my nieces are students and obviously defend students in general.. well..

This was a pick my daughter took...at least 200 spilling out of one doorway at the same time no masks and all cuddling etc on the road outside ... what do you expect they are young and acting like youngsters do....who knows the consequences??

[WILF 47,202]

It’s not their fault, we have told a whole generation they can be and do whatever they want whenever they want, nothing matters, social constructs and connection to the place around you is nonsense.

And more to the point they have been told go back to school with hundreds of others because they are OK to do so.......if you can walk round a school with hundreds of people then you can go out and enjoy yourself with hundreds of people.

I don’t blame them one little bit.

[NEWKID 27,189]

2 minutes ago, WILF said:

It’s not their fault, we have told a whole generation they can be and do whatever they want whenever they want, nothing matters, social constructs and connection to the place around you is nonsense.

And more to the point they have been told go back to school with hundreds of others because they are OK to do so.......if you can walk round a school with hundreds of people then you can go out and enjoy yourself with hundreds of people.

I don’t blame them one little bit.

Hence my point, they are young and acting like youngsters do... 

Anyway, Exeter is in Lockdown as of tonight, I've got an online meeting with the mechanical director at the uni later regards our UV-C units, they have a big problem up there....well loads of cases.

[sandymere 8,263]

How about we use lockdown two to do something we didn’t bother to do in lockdown one, like learn to play an instrument,  read that book from the back of the shelf or develop a working track and trace system….

Edited October 12, 2020 by sandymere

[king 11,972]

7 minutes ago, sandymere said:

How about we use lockdown two to do something we didn’t bother to do in lockdown one, like learn to play an instrument,  read that book from the back of the shelf or develop a working track and trace system….

I don't even carry a mobile phone with me ever.the 1 I'm on now has no sim card in and won't have a sim card in it.i only use it in the house.

So track and trace system isn't any use to me at all.

 

 

[Accip74 7,112]

I’m in shops almost daily, I can’t be the only one. Thousands & thousands of people meeting up daily in shops.......obviously we can’t close food shops, so hospitality draws the short straw.

[Accip74 7,112]

Didn’t supermarket staff suffer disproportionally compared to others, when it came to infection?

[sandymere 8,263]

Little reading based on USA but would be similar over here.

 

 

Dear Pandemic.

Q: What do you think of the idea of “focused protection” or “shielding” the vulnerable so that everyone else can get on with normal life?

A: We *wish* it were this easy, but sadly it’s not.

While this approach sounds appealing on the surface, the deeper you dig the more the argument collapses in on itself.

Let me explain. No, there is too much. Let me sum up:

• The death and hospitalization toll even in under 65s would be staggering

• No consideration of waning immunity and re-infection

• No mention of impact of “Long Covid” for millions infected

• Cordoning off of a large percentage of the population is not feasible

• False dichotomy between lockdown and “back to normal”

• We never reached “natural” immunity to infections such as cholera, yellow fever, polio, measles, TB, and the plague—these were brought under control through public health measures and ultimately vaccines.

____

The stated goal of the “focused protection” policy is to protect those who are vulnerable by “building up natural immunity” among the rest of the population.

• Let’s pretend there is a magic world where it is possible to put the 54 million Americans aged 65 and over in a protective bubble without any interaction with younger people. Next let’s assume that to achieve a high level of population immunity required to protect those vulnerable later on (since part of the population would stay susceptible), you would need 80% of those under age 65 to be infected.

Let’s remember that while risk of death from COVID-19 rises steeply with age, there are still many under 65s who die of the disease. In fact, at current age-specific infection fatality rates (IFRs), the expected number of deaths UNDER AGE 65 with an 80% infection rate would be…

approximately 357,564 deaths.

This is almost as many American deaths as in World War II (405,399).

While it’s true that death rates are low for those under 35, this strategy would still lead to an estimated 4765 deaths in that age group, more than died on 9/11. (See below for the full breakdown of expected deaths by age).

• . But let’s acknowledge that even the best bubbles are leaky. With the extremely high levels of infection in the under 65s actively desired for this strategy, some infection is bound to spill over to the over 65s via those that work in hospitals and nursing homes, multigenerational living arrangements and caregiving, etc. What if only 10% of over 65s were infected, which would seem like quite successful “shielding” overall?

A 10% “spillover” infection rate in the over-65s would lead to an *additional* 396,000 deaths in the over 65s.

All told, attempting to end the COVID-19 pandemic quickly via the BEST CASE scenario of 80% infections in those under 65 and 10% in those 65 & over leads to over 753,000 expected deaths, almost the equivalent of 2 American World War IIs and almost half of those deaths in those under age 65.

The number of hospitalizations & ICU admissions would be many multiples of these death numbers.

• But that’s the *best-case* scenario if everything goes as planned. This proposition does not account for (or even mention) the unknowns of duration of immunity and possibility for re-infection. If immunity is short-lived as in other coronaviruses, a continuous supply of new people into the “susceptible” pool due to waning immunity would mean this protective herd immunity would perpetually be just out of reach. Vaccine induced immunity, on the other hand, can produce more robust and durable immunity than natural infection (https://bit.ly/2SKBVix).

• The strategy does not acknowledge AT ALL any risks of COVID-19 to younger people beyond death. But COVID-19 affects not only the lungs, but also the heart, kidneys, blood vessels, and possibly the brain (https://go.nature.com/3jR8S90). While we don’t have good estimates of the prevalence of “Long Covid” yet, the mounting evidence of long-term health effects should give us pause before *actively seeking out* widespread infection among the young. If 80% of young people aged 0-34 are infected and *only* 2% experienced chronic Long Covid, this would be 2.4 million young people in the US with potentially debilitating symptoms requiring continued health care and hindering their ability to work and participate in society.

• The idea that large segments of society could be sealed off from the rest of society is difficult to imagine in practice, and supporters of this approach have provided no details on how this magic could be achieved. Let’s say the definition of vulnerability is age-based (though we know in reality risk is also associated with sex, pre-existing conditions, etc). Besides multi-generational households, millions of younger people work in nursing homes and hospitals and other industries where this contact cannot be avoided. Professor William Hanage likens the strategy to protecting antiques in a house fire by putting them all in one room, standing guard with a fire extinguisher but simultaneously fanning the flames. This doesn’t end well- but instead of your antiques it’s your loved ones.

• Finally, it is a straw man argument to claim our COVID options are ‘majority back to normal’ vs ‘lockdown.’ As you might have noticed, we are no longer in lockdown. While life is far from what it was prior to March, many activities have resumed, but many people are also taking voluntary precautions. Remember the stated goal of the “focused protection” strategy is to achieve a HIGH level of infections among the non-shielded group. With the virus running wild and hospitalization and deaths piling up even in the so-called “non-vulnerable” it’s unlikely that a large percentage of people will be rushing back to public spaces, meaning the strategy will fail to achieve its goal of resuming economic and social activity.

• . Proponents of the shielding approach assert that natural immunity is the only way out of this pandemic mess. They imply they would like the virus to spread quickly to achieve this…ALMOST AS IF IT WOULD BE IDEAL IF YOU COULD INJECT PEOPLE WITH THE VIRUS TO SPEED UP THE PROCESS OR SOMETHING. We may be months away from such a solution-called a vaccine- but with the benefit of hundreds of thousands of avoidable hospitalizations and deaths compared to “natural” immunity. Strangely, the proponents of the focused protection approach have not even mentioned vaccines and treatments in the pipeline and why certain disease and death for many would be preferable to continued public health measures to minimize transmission for several more months.

• Finally, we want to say that this is a complicated issue worthy of open and honest discussion, but this “debate” is often mischaracterized by a minority seeking headlines and attention. Very few public health scientists and professionals are advocating a return to lockdown, and all are concerned with the indirect effects of lost jobs and education. We should all be discussing the trade-offs inherent in specific policies going forward and do our best to prioritize essentials such as schools and non-COVID health care while supporting those individuals and industries taking the biggest economic hits. But the reality is that the countries that have returned almost to “normal” are the ones that managed to suppress the virus to low levels through aggressive testing, track and trace and a combination of other preventive measures (https://bit.ly/2IjXmFg).

The path to “natural” immunity leads to both death AND economic destruction, one way or another.

There is a better way. Continuing to #StaySMART and minimizing transmission along with a commitment to improve our test, track and trace infrastructure can go a long way to getting us to the happier version of this ending. It won’t be easy, but we can do a lot better than closing our eyes and hoping we can “skip to the end.”

#dataandmetrics #infectionspread #herdimmunity

___________________________________

Source for age-specific infection fatality rates used in calculations above:

https://www.medrxiv.org/con.../10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v6 (Table 3)

US age-sex population estimates:

https://bit.ly/3iRbGlh

Expected deaths by age group (80% infection rate, IFRs from source above)

55-64: 254,809

45-54: 75,188

35-44: 22,802

0-34: 4765

(10% infection rate, IFRs from source above)

65-74: 78,939

75-84: 137,192

85+: 179,938

Further reading:

https://www.wired.co.uk/.../great-barrington-declaration...

https://www.theguardian.com/.../why-herd-immunity...

 

Dear pandemic are Those Nerdy Girls, a team of female PhD's and MD's curating COVID-19 content for the greater good. We love facts. For educational purposes, nothing here substitutes for advice from your healthcare provider. Stay safe, stay sane.

[sandymere 8,263]

21 minutes ago, Balaur said:

Gonna be good science mentioning 9/11 and ww2 lol the guardian....a lot of that information may be accurate and I agree with some of it but it's got anti trump/liberal lefty spin sprinkled all over it....does more harm than good, scare tactics, should give compatible rates with colds and flus that cause deaths etc, not terrorist atrocities...

Written by some pretty clever people................. what part is anti trump?

It mentions info that makes it viable and in context to the average reader to allow a scale of impact rather than just numbers, personally  don't see that as a problem.

[Accip74 7,112]

2 hours ago, sandymere said:

How about we use lockdown two to do something we didn’t bother to do in lockdown one, like learn to play an instrument,  read that book from the back of the shelf or develop a working track and trace system….

Or looking for a new job in wind turbines.....

[Greb147 6,809]

5 minutes ago, Accip74 said:

Or looking for a new job in wind turbines.....

Struggle to catch it up there with the wind blasting about. 

[Greb147 6,809]

9 minutes ago, baker boy said:

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/britains-top-big-cat-tracker-22827259

Hope covid doesn't harm them.

[Greb147 6,809]

Ended up doing as is right by procedure and didn't go in to work today. 

Rang our office but those in HR are working from home and are not responding and haven't called me back, spoke to my line manager and he is saying I will need to book a test for my daughter and take it from there. 

Tried to book a test this tea time but the nearest centre that was open was in York which is about 1 hour away. 

I'll try again in the morning as I know there is places doing testing local to me. 

I'm starting to think I shouldn't have called in work in the first place and just gone in to work regardless. 

 

Edited October 12, 2020 by Greb147

[DIDO.1 22,844]

I go into 6-10 houses a day....the vast majority will automatically say "don't bother about the mask we don't care here" 

I did a job on a building site, it was outside and I didn't need to come into contact with anyone....but I had to go into the offices and sit around a table with 6 others and listen to a 20 minute covid induction. 

We can't fight the virus like this....its just going through the motions, nobody really gives a fck

Edited October 13, 2020 by DIDO.1