Nik_B 3,790 Posted May 2, 2017 Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 Historically they tend to happen quite regularly every 7-12 years, in recent history the longest period between them I believe was the 90s up to the financial crash around 17 years although the US had a very minor one in that period. Not every recession ends in total disaster though, some are worse that others but if the economy is in dire straights and there is no room to lower interest rates (like now) there are no tools to use to stimulate growth. I'm no expert and don't really no anything about the economy in general but I listen to my gut feeling and I've had an uneasy feeling for quite some time that another one is getting close. it could be small but it could trigger another global recession since the causes of the 2008 banking collapse still haven't been fixed. What worries me is that people have massive amounts of credit and house prices are through the roof, it things go south people will struggle to pay off debt/even their mortgages and house prices could even crash again leaving people with negative equity. I think we are due another one within the next two years and I'm battening down the hatches! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
walshie 2,804 Posted May 2, 2017 Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 I think we should call you Chuckles. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Accip74 7,112 Posted May 2, 2017 Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 (edited) I think we should call you Chuckles. Haha......he's a proper bundle of laughs our Nik........haha... Edited May 2, 2017 by Accip74 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DogMan85 722 Posted May 2, 2017 Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 I think we should call you Chuckles. Barry or Paul.... ? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
WILF 47,584 Posted May 2, 2017 Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 Markets expand and contract, there's always opportunity on any given scenario so personally.....I don't pay much attention to it. I have lived through 3 or 4 now, I still alive and kicking as are we all.......you can't worry about things you have no control over, you just have to think how you can exploit the situation. 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Nik_B 3,790 Posted May 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 I think we should call you Chuckles. Haha......he's a proper bundle of laughs our Nik........haha... Thanks lol As the Lehmann collapse was unfolding in 2008 oil prices rocketed everyone I knew was buying cars and houses, my gut told me the sh*t was about to hit the fan so I paid off everything I could, the car, student loans and credit cards getting my outgoings down by about 800 per month. By Jan 2009 prices crashed to $25 and thousands of people in our company lost their jobs. I hung on for 6 months and then got laid off three times over the coarse of 1 1/2 years resulting in my becoming a consultant. I didn't even understand markets or anything like that, just had a gut feeling which paid off, Doesn't anyone else get gut feelings like this? My other gut feelings were Brexit and Trump but that's another story I know people close to me who are desperately trying to buy a house, I wouldn't want them to take my uneducated advice but I worry that if it happens and there will be a housing market crash there's a lot of people left holding a giant turd. p.s I'm not really worried for myself, I took a gamble on my gut feeling and got out at what I consider a good time just after Brexit and we got way more for our house than I think it was worth. Now some banks are saying house prices have started falling. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
walshie 2,804 Posted May 2, 2017 Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 To me... To you.... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Nik_B 3,790 Posted May 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 To me... To you.... Aye but it paid off when my mates were losing their houses lol Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Nik_B 3,790 Posted May 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 P.S I also predicted the oil crash that happened in 2014, we were getting the kitchen done and I said to the wife, after this we're saving for the next crash unfortunately I was 6 months out and it happened just as the finishing touches were being applied Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Nik_B 3,790 Posted May 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 Markets expand and contract, there's always opportunity on any given scenario so personally.....I don't pay much attention to it. I have lived through 3 or 4 now, I still alive and kicking as are we all.......you can't worry about things you have no control over, you just have to think how you can exploit the situation. I agree, I'm not worrying for ourselves because we're set up to survive financially for a fair while if it happens. It's just something I've been mulling over, as you say they're cyclical, we've had 8 years since the last one so one must be due fairly soon. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
BGD 6,436 Posted May 2, 2017 Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 We've been teetering on the edge of a housing crash for years now even a blind man could see it coming. The global situation isn't looking that great either, the student loan bubble in America is just waiting to pop too. Scary times for folk juggling a few Buy to Let's... 3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
arcticgun 4,548 Posted May 2, 2017 Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 Have we ever actually come out of recession since the last major one? I think coming out of recession these days simply means the banks are borrowing again, which aint the answer really, credit is just another form of control, keeps the weight hanging above the person, think we rely far too much on it personally 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
arcticgun 4,548 Posted May 2, 2017 Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 We've been teetering on the edge of a housing crash for years now even a blind man could see it coming. The global situation isn't looking that great either, the student loan bubble in America is just waiting to pop too. Scary times for folk juggling a few Buy to Let's... imagine the student debts building up here that are never ever going to be repayed, far too many get into uni now just too help hide the true unemployment statistics, so many courses available that even if you go the very best degree you would never get the earning potential as they not half as valid as they used to be 2 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Nik_B 3,790 Posted May 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 We've been teetering on the edge of a housing crash for years now even a blind man could see it coming. The global situation isn't looking that great either, the student loan bubble in America is just waiting to pop too. Scary times for folk juggling a few Buy to Let's... I agree but since people were and still are going crazy borrowing huge amounts of cash and while interest rates are at record lows it seems to me that there aren't enough sensible voices warning people. Imagine if interest rates went up to 5% after all these years of people being used to 1-2%, on a 250k mortgage that would be horrendous. The selfish part of me is looking forward to a housing crash, I could buy back in with second house at a very low price and secondly so I can say I told ya so Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Nik_B 3,790 Posted May 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted May 2, 2017 Have we ever actually come out of recession since the last major one? I think coming out of recession these days simply means the banks are borrowing again, which aint the answer really, credit is just another form of control, keeps the weight hanging above the person, think we rely far too much on it personally technically we did because we had 'growth' and they also fudge the inflation figures. In reality I think we've had stagnation at best Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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