First Ukip Mp......?

[Blackbriar 8,569]

Polls have closed at the Clacton by - election. UKIP say they are 'confident of winning' - a victory that would see Douglas Carswell become the party's first elected MP. Some exit polls are predicting a majority as large as 10,000 !

 

In the Manchester seat of Middleton, Labour are expected to hold on to one of their stronghold seats, but some pundits are predicting that UKIP will take second place, possibly reducing a large Labour majority to as little as 2,000 !

 

Has UKIP finally 'arrived' ?

With the LibDem leadership ratings in minus figures (seriously !) and Ed Millipede also being risibly unpopular, is this their chance to become a lasting political force ?

 

2015 sees a general election - if we're honest, UKIP is very unlikely to take office, but will Parliament have a UKIP group ? Could they even hold the balance of power ?

Edited October 9, 2014 by Blackbriar

[J Darcy 5,871]

I don't think its 'very unlikely' UKIP will be in power. I wonder what odds the bookies will give...? I think British Politics are going to be in for a shock in the coming year.... :victory:

[BGD 6,436]

I don't think its 'very unlikely' UKIP will be in power. I wonder what odds the bookies will give...? I think British Politics are going to be in for a shock in the coming year.... :victory:

 

Thanks to the FPTP voting system it's basically 100% certain UKIP won't be in power, junior partners in a coalition with the Conservatives maybe.

 

Realistically though UKIP will just split the Tory vote and guarantee a Labour victory.

[Tiercel 6,986]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-29562579

 

TC

[pesky1972 5,220]

I don't think its 'very unlikely' UKIP will be in power. I wonder what odds the bookies will give...? I think British Politics are going to be in for a shock in the coming year.... :victory:

William Hill 100-1

 

3 legged donkey

[sussex 5,777]

The cat is amongst the pigeons ....Conservative , Labour , Liberal pigeons are all in danger ...The UKIP cat will surly put paid to many well fed fat old birds .. :boogy:

[The Seeker 3,048]

We'll done UKIP

[tsteve9999 456]

I can't see where the "a vote for UKIP is a vote for labour" thing is coming from, I would think the vast majority of UKIP voters are working class people like me, so there are a hell of a lot of Labour voters in that mix.

[marshman 7,757]

Huge moment for brittish politics they're saying in the tv , I agree . Rochester and strood next and the other party's are getting worried.

[sussex 5,777]

Huge moment for brittish politics they're saying in the tv , I agree . Rochester and strood next and the other party's are getting worried.

 

I think they are long over the getting worried marshman , I think they are in shitting stage , the realization that this is not going away & all the main parties are in for a tough time .It wasn't that long ago they were saying UKIP couldn't win a seat in Parliament but after the last two by elections that little theory has been well & truly laid to rest ....

[Ggib 370]

I'd love to now why the other parties don't question why the people are changing the votes? Feck me if they can't see people are fed up with how it's getting run then they just thinkeople like them in person. Are they all that blind to the fact that the masses have had enough of the bollix were getting rammed down our throats. If they can't see it then they're not working as a public servant, just for their own gains with no care for British traditions, culture, and peoples themselves.

[charlie caller 3,654]

I'd love to now why the other parties don't question why the people are changing the votes? Feck me if they can't see people are fed up with how it's getting run then they just thinkeople like them in person. Are they all that blind to the fact that the masses have had enough of the bollix were getting rammed down our throats. If they can't see it then they're not working as a public servant, just for their own gains with no care for British traditions, culture, and peoples themselves.

They know exactly why people are changing the vote mate, but they wont stop their race replacement multi culti dream now its in mid flow, I just hope ukip honour their promises? Oh silly me of course they will, all politicians are honest arent they

[Born Hunter 17,751]

There's a long way to go until UKIP will be in a position to honour their promises. I really do think that in the GE we'll see a Conservative/UKIP coalition......... though that's perhaps more a hope than a prediction. I can't see UKIP going from zero MPs to a majority government in such a short time, I just don't think the staunch Conservative/labour voters will change attitudes quickly enough even if they were tempted to. But at the same time I am a little terrified of Labour getting back in. A Conservative/UKIP coalition is the best I dare hope for.

 

I also reckon that in such a coalition UKIP would be a nightmare for the conservatives, they'd have f**k all to loose by standing strong and defiant against any compromises in policy. Unlike the Lib Dems....

[Blackbriar 8,569]

Aside from winning, Carswell actually increased his majority, taking 60% of the vote, while the LibDem's ( party of government, remember) persuaded just 487 of the good people of Clacton to venture out and support them. All 3 of the major parties lost support wholesale to UKIP.

 

Meanwhile, up in Heywood and Middleton, a Labour majority of over 6,000 was reduced to just 617 - well below the 3,000 or so predicted. Conservative support halved, while the LibDem's, once again, faded into insignificance. While UKIP is a natural staging post for disillusioned Tories, this second result shows that Labour can be unseated in their traditional northern strongholds. There are also a couple of tight Tory marginals nearby who will have to watch out..............

 

Last week, the Fabian Society published research saying that UKIP will threaten Tories in over 100 marginal seats, 3 being at "critical risk" of falling to Farage. Labour are at serious risk in 83 seats, the most critical being Great Grimsby.

 

The only thing for certain is that UKIP have increased electoral uncertainty - the Rochester and Strood by - election looms large next. CaMoron and Millipede need to wake up - and quick - polls currently put UKIP nine points ahead !

[shepp 2,285]

Even if it is the case that voting UKIP will increase the risk of Dead Millipede getting in, i personally believe that it is worth the risk.

UKIP can not get pass this stage in there growth without sacrifices being made.

Let's face it, there is not much between Labour and Conservative now so will it really matter?

We should vote for who we want to hold power and not for who we want to stop getting in.

It could even result in a UKIP / Conservative coilition.